As a sequel to Mindframe's "What-If", I got thinking:
The flogging NSA is receiving for the fact that millions of phone numbers have been tapped, without judicial permission. Nothing has been analysed, but what-if it is used by the wrong people for the wrong means?
Sources that don't wish to be named (I am seeing this phrase so often these days, that I am wondering about free speech, but that is a whole different blog by itself) reveal that the NSA had the information tapped a day before 9-11 that the attack was planned. But the information was in Arabic, and by the time the translators got to decoding the message, the twin towers were already ruined. What-if they had decoded the message in time, could they pieced together the plot and prevented it?
I was at the Doctor's office yesterday, and the Dr told me she is building a comprehensive database with her patients photographs, so that she may easily be able to link the person when you call. The paranoid me, started thinking: What-if the information in this database is leaked, could it make ID theft easier? What-if the person subsitutes their own photograph in the database and produces photo IDs?
Then again, every now and then, I receive a letter from the Chief Accountant or Lawyer from Burkina Faso, South Africa, offering me a fabulous deal of 23 million USD, because somebody dies leaving the millions in the bank with no known beneficiary. I promptly delete it. What-if it is true? (Laugh out loud!)
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
Sequel to What-IF?
Posted by nourish-n-cherish at 10:41 AM
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3 comments:
I think you should consider taking the 23 million USD. Its not small amount of money you know, for them to spend (That too in Africa!). Actually I got that mail too.. since you got it before me, I'm not gonna take it :-) (I can't stop smiling, while writing this).
Btw, theres been cases in India, who has fallen for this trick and I remember reading an article about this in Vikatan.
what if???? hmm..okie here is my take on this...the timing of "what if" i.e. when the what if statement is posed can be very critical...think about events happening either ex-post or ex-ante...let me look at ex-post first...a what if question sounds like lets say what if i had passed the exam (when the results of the exam have already been released)??? or what if "whatever, when the even has already taken place"...does this reduce complexity?? I guess in a way it does...now there is no strategy set available to the player other than to move on with life...therefore since there is no choice available any ex-post what if statment leads to a simple outcome..
now the more interesting case is a what if analysis ex-ante...thats akin to doing sensitivity analysis on any model..but here again given a problem, there might be a million potential strategies (theoretically) and outcomes...however the number of actions that are feasible tend to be far more manageable but still can he quite cumbersome to im...what if can have multiple choice attributes...if it is binary then the outcome is easily predictable...what if those mails were true...well then u get the money plain and simple..its a different issue as to what happens beyond that...the what if question only defines the exact outcome and hence it again makes a complex problem quite easy to handle...once again consistent with mindframes...
now let me think of a counter example...think about a patient about to undergo surgery...ex-post there are no hassles...ex ante the patient can wonder what if the surgery does not succeed???...then the possibilities are a continnum and no longer a potential discrete choice...for instance think that he might be impaired for life but the degree and the level of impairment cannot be contracted upon prior to surgery...numerous side effects might develop again all these cannot be contracted upon..further we might find interactions among a number of potential outcomes...hence under these circumstances a what if complicates problems more than what we would want..i would think the best potential option is to think what if i did no require a surgery...thats so much more fun...
One way to categorize your what-if questions is to see what outcomes it would generate, positive or negative. A continuous what-if of positive thoughts obviously leads to happiness and the other way leads to sorrow. The root is "Positive Attitude" and that makes all the difference...:)
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