I was reading some stuff on how complexity affects causal inferences and came upon this interesting paradox. From what other scholars have to say, the issue is still debated and there is no conclusion one way or the other.
The paradox was originally penned by a German scholar, Hempel. His hypothesis was simple. His statement was that "all ravens are black". From a statistical standpoint, if this null is hypothesized as being credible the alternative would be "all non black things are not ravens". Therefore if we observe a red cricket ball, this lends further support to our credible null that all ravens are black. The question is intuitively what is the relationship between the color of a cricket ball and the color of a raven? I cant think of any!
Now this clearly indicates that using the inductive approach fails intuition. A fundamentally simple argument which can put a lot of empirical research under tremendous pressure!
PS: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Hempels Paradox
Posted by Mad Max at 12:29 PM 5 comments
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Food
I was reading this news article, about the Queen Elizabeth's dinner in reciprocation of George Bush's presidential dinner. The dinner was served in Manning's residence (Mannings is the British ambassador in US)
"Under Manning's roof, guests dined on wild Scottish smoked salmon (appetizer), roast rib of veal (main course) and a summer pudding (dessert). Four wines were served, and the queen asked everyone to drink to the president and first lady Laura Bush, to the future of Britain and the United States and to the countries' "enduring friendship."
I don't know how hard it is to make roast rib of veal(http://www.kycattle.org/recipes.cfm?recipeid=4). Assuming it is really difficult, and takes hours of pain-staking effort - I have trouble stomaching the fact that there were totally 3 dishes. I suppose you can cut your roast rib of veal into 4 equal pieces and sample with 4 different types of wine, giving you the delusion of variety.
My Indian upbringing jarred when I saw this new item, and also realised just how much importance we place on food. I think all our social gatherings hover around food. Our wedding banters have the supreme ability of stumping the most gluttonous eater. The precise statistics are unavailable, but I presume 50% of the wedding banter involves asking one another whether they ate food. At my brother-in-law's wedding, it was surprisingly easy to make conversation with folks I saw for the first time in my life. All I had to do was smile and ask whether they had food or would like some coffee.
At a royal dinner, there must be a hundred topics to steer clear of for political reasons. The weather is too boring. What do you ask people after the "How are you", if food is out.
Manning had served as ambassador in India, and I am imagining the chefs of the the President (CP) and the ambassadorial chefs (CA) met at a bar.
CP to CA: Phew! This queen's dinner tired me out.
CA: Really? what did you make?
CP: Pakoras, Salad, Soup, bajjis for appetizers.
Pilaf, Naan, Aloo paratha, Chicken Tikka Masala, Shahi lamb curry, Malai matter panner, Malai kofta, Hyderabadi biriyani, Raita and Pickles for the main course
Ras malai, gulab jamuns, Kheer for dessert
CA: Yeah! Last night, I was really tired too. I had to make wild Scottish smoked salmon (appetizer), roast rib of veal (main course) and a summer pudding (dessert).
CP: HEY! That's not fair.
CA: Sure is - took me the same time, and people enjoyed it too. See my news item - and where's yours to compare?!
CP: BAH!
Posted by nourish-n-cherish at 2:11 PM 7 comments
Monday, May 07, 2007
A Pacific Holiday
Folks, I will be visiting the bay area sometime next month. To be more specific I think the exact dates are June 17th and 18th. I'm in California earlier, from the 13th at Lake Tahoe for a conference. Have taken a couple of days off after that and thought will visit friends in the Bay area. It would be great to meet up with everybody (of course depending on your schedule). If I remember correct the two days are Sunday and Monday. So do let me know and we can plan something.
Posted by Mad Max at 8:33 PM 5 comments
Thursday, May 03, 2007
How soon is too soon and how late is too late?
Every so often, I try to answer this philosophical question. You are in a conference and you stare at the brilliant radiance eminating from the shiny baldness of the speaker. The eminent guy is throwing jargon around like hailstones. You can start firing off your questions rightaway.
Self: What does the 3rd word in your previous sentence mean?
Shiny head: Blank stare....'AND'?
Self: No...the word before 'AND'
The moment this happens, you give shiny head the upper hand, because he can say, you have to be patient. He will explain everything eventually. AND you have instantly alienated everybody else in the room, who either wants to enjoy the monotone and relax, or find it an unnecessary interruption.
You wait for a while assuming that the jargon will eventually dribble down to a few more often used terms before you ask for clarifications. Take this as an exercise in your next technical seminar. You pen down all the fancy words that you want clarification on, and put a statistical indicator near the words. Soon, you know the shiny head's favourites. You are still seeking clarification remember.
Shiny head's list: Cognac, TR!FS, GORR
So, all you need to do is wait for the next breather to seek clarification. Now, you look around the room, and everybody nods looking as though they are grasping everything.
Cognac's blah...blah will be used while TR!FS schedules an intermediate transmission routing via GORR.
blah....blah.....blah Cognac meanwhile responds to GORR...blah blah.
The following approaches are available to you at this juncture:
1) Look equally knowledgeable, and nod your head convincingly without falling asleep.
2) Look around for the person who nods the most and ask them to explain. If the concerned person was following strategy (1), it would make them look like a prized fool and provide for some entertainment.
3) Play a word-game while pretending to take notes and run into the arms of the search engine called Google at the nearest opportunity!
I wonder how people managed before Google!
Posted by nourish-n-cherish at 4:56 PM 4 comments