Hempels Paradox

I was reading some stuff on how complexity affects causal inferences and came upon this interesting paradox. From what other scholars have to say, the issue is still debated and there is no conclusion one way or the other.

The paradox was originally penned by a German scholar, Hempel. His hypothesis was simple. His statement was that "all ravens are black". From a statistical standpoint, if this null is hypothesized as being credible the alternative would be "all non black things are not ravens". Therefore if we observe a red cricket ball, this lends further support to our credible null that all ravens are black. The question is intuitively what is the relationship between the color of a cricket ball and the color of a raven? I cant think of any!

Now this clearly indicates that using the inductive approach fails intuition. A fundamentally simple argument which can put a lot of empirical research under tremendous pressure!

PS: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raven_paradox

Food

I was reading this news article, about the Queen Elizabeth's dinner in reciprocation of George Bush's presidential dinner. The dinner was served in Manning's residence (Mannings is the British ambassador in US)

"Under Manning's roof, guests dined on wild Scottish smoked salmon (appetizer), roast rib of veal (main course) and a summer pudding (dessert). Four wines were served, and the queen asked everyone to drink to the president and first lady Laura Bush, to the future of Britain and the United States and to the countries' "enduring friendship."

I don't know how hard it is to make roast rib of veal(http://www.kycattle.org/recipes.cfm?recipeid=4). Assuming it is really difficult, and takes hours of pain-staking effort - I have trouble stomaching the fact that there were totally 3 dishes. I suppose you can cut your roast rib of veal into 4 equal pieces and sample with 4 different types of wine, giving you the delusion of variety.

My Indian upbringing jarred when I saw this new item, and also realised just how much importance we place on food. I think all our social gatherings hover around food. Our wedding banters have the supreme ability of stumping the most gluttonous eater. The precise statistics are unavailable, but I presume 50% of the wedding banter involves asking one another whether they ate food. At my brother-in-law's wedding, it was surprisingly easy to make conversation with folks I saw for the first time in my life. All I had to do was smile and ask whether they had food or would like some coffee.

At a royal dinner, there must be a hundred topics to steer clear of for political reasons. The weather is too boring. What do you ask people after the "How are you", if food is out.

Manning had served as ambassador in India, and I am imagining the chefs of the the President (CP) and the ambassadorial chefs (CA) met at a bar.

CP to CA: Phew! This queen's dinner tired me out.
CA: Really? what did you make?
CP: Pakoras, Salad, Soup, bajjis for appetizers.
Pilaf, Naan, Aloo paratha, Chicken Tikka Masala, Shahi lamb curry, Malai matter panner, Malai kofta, Hyderabadi biriyani, Raita and Pickles for the main course
Ras malai, gulab jamuns, Kheer for dessert
CA: Yeah! Last night, I was really tired too. I had to make wild Scottish smoked salmon (appetizer), roast rib of veal (main course) and a summer pudding (dessert).
CP: HEY! That's not fair.
CA: Sure is - took me the same time, and people enjoyed it too. See my news item - and where's yours to compare?!
CP: BAH!

A Pacific Holiday

Folks, I will be visiting the bay area sometime next month. To be more specific I think the exact dates are June 17th and 18th. I'm in California earlier, from the 13th at Lake Tahoe for a conference. Have taken a couple of days off after that and thought will visit friends in the Bay area. It would be great to meet up with everybody (of course depending on your schedule). If I remember correct the two days are Sunday and Monday. So do let me know and we can plan something.

How soon is too soon and how late is too late?

Every so often, I try to answer this philosophical question. You are in a conference and you stare at the brilliant radiance eminating from the shiny baldness of the speaker. The eminent guy is throwing jargon around like hailstones. You can start firing off your questions rightaway.

Self: What does the 3rd word in your previous sentence mean?
Shiny head: Blank stare....'AND'?
Self: No...the word before 'AND'

The moment this happens, you give shiny head the upper hand, because he can say, you have to be patient. He will explain everything eventually. AND you have instantly alienated everybody else in the room, who either wants to enjoy the monotone and relax, or find it an unnecessary interruption.

You wait for a while assuming that the jargon will eventually dribble down to a few more often used terms before you ask for clarifications. Take this as an exercise in your next technical seminar. You pen down all the fancy words that you want clarification on, and put a statistical indicator near the words. Soon, you know the shiny head's favourites. You are still seeking clarification remember.

Shiny head's list: Cognac, TR!FS, GORR

So, all you need to do is wait for the next breather to seek clarification. Now, you look around the room, and everybody nods looking as though they are grasping everything.

Cognac's blah...blah will be used while TR!FS schedules an intermediate transmission routing via GORR.

blah....blah.....blah Cognac meanwhile responds to GORR...blah blah.

The following approaches are available to you at this juncture:

1) Look equally knowledgeable, and nod your head convincingly without falling asleep.
2) Look around for the person who nods the most and ask them to explain. If the concerned person was following strategy (1), it would make them look like a prized fool and provide for some entertainment.
3) Play a word-game while pretending to take notes and run into the arms of the search engine called Google at the nearest opportunity!

I wonder how people managed before Google!

Big Sur Experience

Everyone of us have goals that we strive to achieve. While striving to achieve goals is one thing, very few get to see it end up in fruition. I was very fortunate to see that happening to me during this Big Sur marathon. While the natural instinct would be to equate hard work to good reward, reality isnt always rewarding and things arent always predictable. There is certainly a factor called "luck" in it. To top it, one has to have people around them who believe in them and assume that they will be able to succeed, by default. For me, Shoba was that person. She is one person who never doubts if I will succeed and believes, by default, that I will succeed. My sincere thanks to all my friends (Sri, Saumya, Mano, Meera, Karthi, Shankar and many others) who believe in me... Special thanks to karthi who surprised me with flowers, though only half the plant belongs to me..:)



Well, as with every marathon, this marathon effort started with denial. I didnt want to run a marathon. I was quite clear that I wanted to do a series of half-marathons before attempting a full marathon. As inspiring and as pushing as he can be, Mano started his campaign about Big Sur in November. He convinced me that my hill training will anyway help me in doing a half-marathon. And, I fell into his trap...:(... I started running with him and decided to run Big Sur. Before I knew it, it was end of January and I hadnt run any long distance run and the fear of not performing well crept into me. I was convinced that my goal was not to just complete the marathon, but beat my previous time by a sizable margin. As I explained in my earlier blog, I prepared myself really well.



I was quite confident till last week when the fear of "what-ifs" started getting to me. What if I am not fully hydrated on the day of the marathon? What if suddenly get cramped badly half way into the run? All sorts of fears... The sum of all fears is to be fully prepared. Because then, you run out of options to complain...:)..I started carbo loading (overloading) and it resulted in indigestion. I was getting more worried... As always, time was ticking and there was nothing I can do to stop it.. Sriks and I started on Saturday noon and arrived in Monterey. Thanks to Sri, with him around, one will never have time to worry about anything... He is such a morale booster and a cheerful person to have when you need support, both mentally and "physically" (I will let Sri describe that...I will limit myself by saying that we shared the same bed that night...Let me also say that Mano was missed...:))... We attended an "inspiring" speech session by Susan Love. She was just amazing. She has run over 47000 miles and has topped in a lot of races. She gave a really inspirational speech. We also had the chance of meeting running elites like Jeff Galloway and Dean Karnazes. We got their autographs. It was a great feeling to have our Bibs signed by Dean. This guy has the world record of running 350 miles non-stop and for running 50 marathons in 50 consecutive days... He is just amazing and yet looked very humble...

We had our final carb loading in India Clay Oven at Monterey. Not a great place to eat. But, all we needed was rice, dal and vegetables. We slept at 8:45 in the night (when I say slept, I mean lights went off at 8:45 in our room..again, I wudnt get into the details...:)). By the way, we stayed in downtown travelodge which is an ideal place to be close to the action (monterey conf. center and bus pickup). I didnt have a good sleep. But, I was rested well enough that I woke up at 2:37AM to find myself happy that I had another 20 more minutes to sleep.. We woke up at 3:00 and got ready by 3:40. Though the shuttle pick up place was just a few minutes away from our stay, the queue extended for about 0.2 miles... However, it took us only 15 minutes in the line to get into the bus. The shuttle started at 4:15 and it takes about 1 hour to get to Big Sur. This is one of those marathons where you kind of start at the farther end and come back running to the start place. Given the timing and the number of people to be transported, there must have been atleast 120-140 shuttles which will do just 1 trip to the start point. The organization was quite amazing. Anyway, we landed in Big Sur at around 5:15AM. Having had bad experiences with porta potties, my first instinct when I got out of the shuttle was to search for porta potties. There was atleast 30-40 porta potties. Wow!! it was a pleasant surprise and at this point, I had nothing to complain about for any poor performance in running. Throughout, this marathon was organized very professionally and had the best bunch of volunteers. They had sun-block lotion, vaseline, trash covers for wind breakers and food!, all at the start point!!



I had a clear strategy for this run. Run the 26.2 miles as fast as possible and yet have the least injuries..:)...Seriously, I just wanted to run at a pace where I dont gasp for breath and sustain it as much as possible and push it to the end. I knew I could do around 9:10 per mile pace for 20 miles. But, the course for big sur is hilly and I knew that it was going to have an impact. When the gun fired, I started my watch... I was doing 9 minutes pace and was sustaining it comfortably for the first 10 miles till hurricane point where I slowed down intentionally to make sure that I dont get too tired running uphill. The climate was excellent (~50-60 F) and the crowd was fun. I was feeling great because I like running in cooler climates and given that I trained on steeper hills, I wasnt worried about the inclinations. When I started nearing hurricane point, it seemed less difficult than what I expected it to be. At the half-way point, I saw that I was clocking at 2:03 which is roughly about 9:30 per mile. I programmed my mind to wait for 20 miles since I have run that 2 times during training. I thought that I can worry about the last 6 miles when it comes to it... Mile 16 and Mile 19 had some hills which slowed me down. I tried to catch up by running a little faster in downhill sessions. I soon realised at the 21 mile mark that I started getting signs of cramps when I ran downhill. Knowing my limits, I tried to run uniformly without surging down the hills and I was feeling better. 22nd mile hill was a little tough but I managed to not stop till I reached the aid station in the down hill. The aid stations were fantastic. The initial ones had just water and gatorade. At the 12 and 18 mile mark, there was Gu gel, banana, orange, water, gatorade and vaseline. At all aid stations after 13, they had banana, orange slice, water and gatorade which was quite good. I heard from Sri that they even had medical aids after mile 16. To top that, they had a lot of volunteers at each station and they were great. There were piano players, guitar and harp players along the way to entertain runners. To top all of this, we were running along the pacific coast, which is one of the most scenic place in earth.




At mile 23, I think I reached the runner's high. I suddenly felt a strange sense of happiness which almost made me cry. I have wondered about why people cry over achievements. I always thought that they were somewhat made up. But, to see hours and hours of hard work and training translate to a positive result sure gives a chill. At that point, I could have stopped running and walk to the end line and still would have been happier. It is a feeling that can only be felt and I felt it... Mile 25 was the infamous D-minor hill at D-major time. It looked pretty steep, though it might have just been my mind at the 25 mile point... Anyway, I crossed the hill and was started running towards the end line. I spotted Mano near mile 26. Took my hats off and waved at him...He took his camera and adjusted and then put it aside as if I didnt exist..:)... I didnt give up... I started waving more. He saw me then... I saw Shoba jumping up and down, Saumya, Keena and Meera all cheering up for me. I gave all my remaining energy into sprinting through the last 0.2 mile... And then, it was done...Yes, I completed my run in 4:12:10 which is a personal best for me. To sum it all up, it was a great moment... One of the rarest moments in my life that I will cherish for ever... Now, the question is, What next?

Your interpretation

I was talking to a colleague near the microwave while my food was being heated.Our conversation started with the customary hellos.
She: Hey ! you look very pretty today....
I: Thank you, I guess it is my dress...

And on it went to the topic of wedding dresses , and the usual what we wear in India for weddings..blah..blah...we should share photos...blah blah...

She: So, how long have you been married?
I: 7 yrs.And you?
She: 27 years.
I: Wow ! Thats long !!Actually, my parents finished their 45th anniversary last year.
She: Good. So, they are reaching their "Golden Anniversary".
I: Yep !! So, what did you do for your "Silver Anniversary".
She: Nothing. I just slept.
I: Really !! Why? What did your husband get you for your anniv?
She: You see, in 1975, when there was communism in Vietnam, they forced people to work in farms,like hortcul
I: U mean horticulture
She: Ya ya..So, they created channels in the river.
I: Hmmmmm....

OK, now I suppose you all will agree with me when I say I thought the conversation was not over and something relevant to wedding anniversary was coming up...Well, then you guessed wrong. THAT WAS THE ANSWER. And of course, I followed it with a NOD and a SMILE . Before I could think of a retort, we were interrupted by another Vietnamese lady and they started chatting and DING! my food was cooked and I walked out of the place wondering what could have been her interpretation of my question. Any guesses?

"Maybe her husband is still in Vietnam, and she wanted to convey something pertaining to it."

Being surrounded by Vietnamese , I thought I had seen all and could understand their english. I do speak fast but wonder how my question could have been misinterpreted by her.

Default State

It has been a while since I relaxed my brain muscles. My work is on auto-pilot mode these days, I do things without really thinking about it too much. Not that they dont require thinking, but the thinking part of it is hardwired in a way that obviates any additional thinking. It raised a strange question to myself. What does "thinking" really mean? One thing I know for sure is that it means different things for different people.

One could say that, we think about something all the time. How can one not think about anything? Then, does knowledge enhance thinking? As a new born kid, did we have our genes and system wired up to start thinking, just like the fishes swim? If we attribute our thinking to be proportional to knowledge acquired over a period of time, then how do we define the default state to be? Can I redefine default state as a state of ignorance of a topic even as an adult? If so, can I say that we are pretty much operating on our default state for most of the things around us, because we dont know what everyone else is thinking and everything before us is just a snapshot of how we see them and not how it ought to be seen? We can always use our imaginations to come up with theories for every little thing that happens around us and there are infinite possibilities. What if we start thinking about all the cases where everything around us is happening for a valid reason...No, I am not talking about God or any other super natural power. All I am trying to say is that, there is probably a story behind every good or bad thing that happens around us which can be looked at in a positive way. Wouldnt just looking at it from that point of view make everything around us reasonable? Wouldnt that mean that the world is a better place to live? Is it just that we just have to break up our default wired state to get rid of all our frustrations and problems ? I dont know...

The Alameda-Weehawken Burrito Tunnel

For those of you who don't know about it-- this tunnel between the Bay Area and New Jersey was built around 1933 to deliver mail. The link below takes you through its various stages to its current role, delivering burritos coast to coast at a speed of a mile a sec.

http://idlewords.com/2007/04/the_alameda-weehawken_burrito_tunnel.htm

Big Sur(ge) Ahead...

Well, I decided to not write a whole lot about my running this time till I complete my Big Sur marathon. But, given the magnitude of the effort I have put in, I wanted to pat myself on the back on what I have done so far instead of focussing just on the end result, which is the actual marathon itself.

Having completed my first marathon last year, as everybody else, I thought I should run another marathon, at a better pace.... I wasnt quite convinced with my timing on my first marathon since I felt that, if I had paced myself right, I wouldnt have ended up having as many cramps as I did during the last 6 miles of the marathon, which killed my time by around 20-30 minutes... I thought I should try the sacramento marathon just a month later and dismissed it since it was just an impulsive thing to do...

When Mano told me about Big Sur marathon in late November, I wasnt up for it. First of all, it was a slightly challenging marathon, given the hills and elevation. Secondly, I preferred a flatter course to improve my marathon time. I also thought that I should better my half marathon speed really well before attempting another full marathon. I told him that I would run with him in Ranchos hills since it would help increase my pace for the half marathons. We did some hill running during December and by January, I was convinced that I should take up Big Sur... Runner's world magazine says that, if a runner had a choice of running only one marathon in his life time, it would be Big Sur and I thought that I shouldnt pass on that oppurtunity even if I cannot run it at my best pace...

My training base was solid this time. But, I didnt do any long runs (> 10 miles) till end of January. So, it was a little sluggish from that angle. However, I joined a Gym called Club One and I was regularly doing cross training. So, that was an addition to my running schedule. Also, I was doing interval training once a week which greatly helped my pace.

On Feb 1, I decided that I was going to dedicate the next couple of months for the marathon. No excuses....My objective was to run atleast 3-4 16 milers and 2 20 milers before marathon over the course of 2 months. I started training 6 days a week of which 4 days were running, 2 days were cross training and 1 day of rest. I ran a 14.5 miler the first week-end of february and then increased it to 16.2 and 16.5 miles the weeks following that. Then, I did an 18.5 followed by 10.5. In March, I did an 18.5, 19 and a 20 miler with the last week as a break since I went to Antigua. Just last week, I did a 20 miler again. I was quite impressed with myself about sticking to my schedule.

This year, as of April 11, I have run 400+ miles and cycled close to 200 miles, totalling ~600 miles of activity excluding the weight training that I did during my cross training days. When I look back at it, I am impressed with myself. My pace as of last week for the 20 miler was around 9 minutes and 12 seconds. I ran my 20 miles in roughly 3 hours excluding 4-5 minutes of break time in between during my 13 and 16.5 mile stops. If I had to run a marathon today, I think I should be able to do it in 4:00-4:15 hrs. But, given that Big Sur has a hilly terrain, I should discount another 10-15 minutes. My target for Big Sur is to be between 4:15 and 4:30 if everything goes my way and I dont get any sickening cramps.

I am well on my way to taper. Last time, I considered taper as my time of rest. But, after some reading, I think it is a big mistake. The books advice you to reduce the mileage to 75% and then 50% but yet running those miles at the same pace as how you would run during regular training weeks. With the marathon on April 29, I am hoping to complete this month with 500 miles of running, my half way mark for the year's target of 1000 miles ! It may not be time to light up the cigar, but it sure is time to buy one and smell it...:)

Reservation quota

Was browsing rediff when I came across the news that TN , aka Karunanidhi has passed a law allotting reservation quota for muslims and christians.
TN announces 30% quota for minorities

This infuriated me as I have been a victim of the so called quotas. If my assumption is right, the introduction of reservation for the supposedly lower caste came about because of their unaffordability for higher studies,job applications etc. But, all these at what cost ? Is it worth it to fill jobs , schools with less qualified people.
There was a phase in my life when I was prejudiced against BCs, MBCs etc.Being immature, and struggling to get into good colleges, it made me very angry to see less qualified students grabbing the good seats. I can vividly remember one particular parent stating that I should have been an OBC , when he was gloating over the fact that his daughter had got a seat in REC,Trichy with atleast 40 points less than me. It made me wonder as to whether I was the victim of a caste system. With the current caste system in India, I think the so called forward communities are the victims. What the hell were they thinking when they named that caste as a forward caste?.What is TN achieving by reserving seats for muslims? . Instead the govt can concentrate on having a different fee structure based on family income and totally get rid of the caste allocation.
I wish other states could follow UP in this regard. Kudos to UP HC , where the judge pronounced that Muslims should not be considered minorities at all. How cool is that?

And some educated guys, IITians , have floated a party in UP.